Dow Performance following a Mid Term Election Year
 

If you look at the Dow's Performance going back to 1900 there is a remarkable pattern that has occurred since 1943.  Every year that has followed a Mid Term Election Year since 1943 has seen a positive yearly return in the Dow as shown in the table below.  The average return in the Dow during that time for the year following a Mid Term Election Year has been an amazing 15.7%.   However prior to 1943 you can see there was a mix of up and down years for the Dow following a Mid Term Election Year.  The question is why has the Dow been up every year since 1943 following a Mid Term Election Year.  Is this just a coincidence or is there a reason why this pattern has continued since World War II?   Meanwhile if this pattern continues then 2007 should end up being another positive year for the Dow.

Yearly Return of the Dow since 1900 following a Mid Term Election Year

 

Year

Return

Up/Down

1903

-23.6

D

1907

-37.7

D

1911

0.2

U

1915

81.7

U

1919

30.5

U

1923

-2.7

D

1927

27.7

U

1931

-52.7

D

1935

38.5

U

1939

-2.8

D

1943

13.8

U

1947

2.2

U

1951

14.4

U

1955

20.8

U

1959

16.4

U

1963

17

U

1967

15.2

U

1971

6.7

U

1975

38.3

U

1979

4.2

U

1983

20.3

U

1987

2.3

U

1991

20.3

U

1995

33.5

U

1999

25.2

U

2003

25.3

U

2007

6.2

U

 

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