401K/TSP Timing Signals
(Updated 6/30/17)

This page gives all of the Daily Buy and Sell Signals using our Market Timing System which focuses on the SPY's which track the S&P 500.  For those that are government employees and use the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) these signals pertain to the C Fund.   We advise that when there isn't a Buy Signal to have your money in the G Fund for people who are using the TSP.

End of Month Analysis

Not much to add as Mutual Fund Cash Levels continue on the low side.  The next significant area of resistance in the S&P 500 is around the 2485 level.

Long Term Analysis

Based on historical research using a combination of 90 Day Tbills and the Fed Funds Rate the Adjusted Mutual Fund Cash % Levels are shown below.  Buy Signals are generated when the red line goes from negative to above +1.0   (The last Buy Signal was generated for March of 2009).  Meanwhile Sell Signals are generated when the red line goes from above +1.0 to below -1.0.  Most significant Tops in the past haven't occurred until the -2.0 level has been reached.

Long Term Signal Performance for the Dow

Buy Signal	Open	Sell Signal	Closing	%	Number
Date	Price	Date	Price	Gain	of Months
Apr-58	446.80	Feb-59	603.50	35.1	11
Nov-62	589.90	Nov-64	875.40	48.4	25
Sep-66	774.20	Oct-67	879.70	13.6	13
Apr-68	840.70	Jan-69	946.10	12.5	10
Aug-70	734.10	May-71	907.80	23.7	10
Oct-74	607.90	Mar-76	999.50	64.4	18
Apr-78	757.40	Sep-78	865.80	14.3	6
Jul-80	867.90	Dec-80	964.00	11.1	6
Aug-82	808.60	Sep-83	1233.10	52.5	14
Mar-83	1112.20	Sep-83	1233.10	10.9	7
Oct-85	1334.00	Mar-98	8799.80	559.7	150
Aug-89	2660.70	Mar-98	8799.80	230.7	104
Jan-92	3168.80	Mar-98	8799.80	177.7	75
Mar-96	5485.60	Mar-98	8799.80	60.4	25
Mar-09	7062.93	Mar-12	13212.00	87.0	36

Long Term Signal Performance for the S&P 500

Buy Signal	Open	Sell Signal	Closing	%	Number
Date	Price	Date	Price	Gain	of Months
Apr-58	42.20	Feb-59	55.41	31.3	11
Nov-62	54.54	Nov-64	84.42	54.8	25
Sep-66	76.56	Oct-67	93.29	21.8	13
Apr-68	90.20	Jan-69	103.01	14.2	10
Aug-70	84.30	May-71	99.63	18.2	10
Oct-74	63.54	Mar-76	102.77	61.7	18
Apr-78	89.21	Sep-78	102.54	14.9	6
Jul-80	114.24	Dec-80	135.76	18.8	6
Aug-82	107.09	Sep-83	166.07	55.1	14
Mar-83	148.06	Sep-83	166.07	12.2	7
Oct-85	182.08	Mar-98	1101.75	505.0	150
Aug-89	346.08	Mar-98	1101.75	218.3	104
Jan-92	417.09	Mar-98	1101.75	164.1	75
Mar-96	640.43	Mar-98	1101.75	72.0	25
Mar-09	735.09	Mar-12	1408.47	91.6	36