Timing Bottoms in the S&P 500 using
Bearish Investment Advisor Sentiment
Historically when Investment Advisors have become extremely
bullish or bearish this has been followed by a substantial move in the S&P
500. First let's take a look at when the Investment Advisors have
become very bearish such that % of Bearish Investment Advisors rises above 35%
using a 3 week Moving Average. Since 1999 this has occurred 7 times
(points A) and in each occurrence the S&P 500 has then rallied strongly
(points B to C). As you can see the S&P 500 has rallied from 20% to
47% each time the % of Bearish Investment Advisors has risen to 35% or above
using a 3 week Moving Average.
The last time the % of Bearish Investment Advisors exceeded
35% was in July of 2006 which was then followed by a 20% rally in the S&P
500 through February of 2007.
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