(8/24/13)
Most investors right now probably think the market has put in a
bottom and will make another high. Since the June 2012 low each time
we have seen a pullback (points A to B) the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call
Ratio has risen at least above the 1.05 level (points C) which was followed by a
higher high in the S&P 500. However the latest pullback from the 1710
high hasn't been followed by a significant spike upward in the 5 Day Average of
the Put to Call Ratio. Thus it appears investors are still rather
complacent and expect a higher high to follow. Meanwhile as far as the wave structure from the 1710 high in
the S&P 500 so far it looks more like a 5 Wave affair. However it's
not clear whether the low at 1639 was the end of the final 5th Wave or just the
end of the 3rd Wave. If 1639 completed the final 5th Wave then we should
see higher prices next week with a target around 1683 which is the 61.8% Retrace
from 1710 to 1639. Meanwhile if the 1639 low was only the bottom for Wave iii
then the current bounce would be Wave iv. In this scenario the S&P 500
would stall out near 1667 early next week and then make a slightly lower low to
complete the final 5th Wave possibly near the 100 Day EMA (green
line).
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