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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(2/1/14)

Latest Margin Debt numbers from the NYSE is very disturbing as there was a large increase in the month of December.  

 

Meanwhile adjusting for inflation Margin Debt has now exceeded that of 2007.  Keep in mind the last two times there was an explosion in Margin Debt large corrections eventually followed.   

 

As far as the near term those that read my daily updates know that the S&P 500 is at a key support level along its 100 Day EMA (green line).   The last two times it dropped back to its 100 Day EMA the S&P 500 held support and rallied to a new high (points A to B).  Thus I'm sure there are many investors believe the same thing will happen again.   However if the 100 Day EMA is solidly broken then a drop back to the 200 Day EMA (blue line) at 1708 is certainly possible in February. 

 

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