Weekend Analysis

(2/5/16)

If we take a look at several different indices a few things stand out.   First most of them have held support  at their longer term 23.6% Retracement Level calculated from the 2009 low.  Secondly some of them have broken their longer term upward trend lines while others haven't.

The Dow has been holding support so far at its 23.6% Retrace (near 15500) the past seven months however it did break below its longer term upward trend line.  

The Nasdaq has been holding support near its 23.6% Retrace as well the past several months which is now coinciding with its long term upward trend line around the 4300 level. 

Next the Russell 2000 has broken solidly below its longer term trend line and 23.6% Retrace.  It's next level of support appears to be near 930 which is the 38.2% Retrace.

The S&P 500 has a key support area near 1790 which corresponds to its 23.6% Retrace and longer term upward trend line.      

Meanwhile the Total Market Index which contains every stock has a key support area at 450 which is right at its 23.6% Retrace and upward trend line.  As I mentioned in the beginning the common theme among all of them except for the Russell 2000 is that they all have held support so far near their 23.6% Retracement Levels from the 2009 lows.  

Finally as I have mentioned the last few weeks the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio still hasn't risen above the 1.25 level.  Since the early 2009 low every significant low has been accompanied by a spike above the 1.25 level (points A).  Thus the question is will the major averages hold support near their 23.6% Retracement Levels without a rise above the 1.25 level?

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