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(1/25/14)
As we ended 2013 I mentioned I thought 2014 would end up being a
volatile year due to investor complacency being at levels not seen in three
decades. Meanwhile the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio had
dropped below the 0.70 level in December (point A) and was lower than the
reading that occurred in April of 2010 (point B). Back in April of
2010 this was followed by a 17% correction over a period of 10 weeks.
At this point if a similar
correction were to occur that would be roughly a 300 point drop from the recent
high around 1850 in the S&P 500. Keep in mind there is a major
support zone in the 1570's for the S&P 500 as this area coincides with the
longer term upward trend line from the March 2009 low. In addition the
23.6% Retrace from 667 to 1850 is in the 1570's as well as the previous high
made in 2007. 
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