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(1/31/15)
For those that don't follow the Bond Market the 30 Year Bond
Yield has dropped considerably the past year and has been making all time lows
of late. At this point it looks like they may go even lower.
Meanwhile
what is a bit concerning is that the last two times the 30 Year Bond Yield
dropped rather dramatically (points A to B) substantial corrections developed in
the market. Back in 2011 there was a 20% correction in the S&P
500 while a 58% correction occurred from 2008 into early 2009.
Although I don't expect a repeat of the 2008-2009 time period we
could certainly see a test of longer term support at some point. The 23.6%
Retrace from 667 to 2094 is in the mid 1750's which also is near the longer term
upward trend line. A drop back to the mid 1750's would roughly be a 15%
correction.
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