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(1/3/15)
As we begin 2015 the S&P Composite in real dollars is just
above the top of its longer term upward channel. There have only been 6
other occurrences going back to the late 1700's (2007, 1999, 1929, 1906, 1853
and 1835) in which this has happened.
Meanwhile as I have mentioned before
in 4 out of the last 6 events once the S&P Composite reached the upper part
of its longer term channel major corrections followed with an eventual drop back
below the median price line (green). In terms of real dollars these four
corrections ranged from 61% to 83%.
However the other two events were able to rise well above the
top of the upper channel back in 1999 and in 1835. In these two events the
S&P Composite rose 150% above its median price line (green) before a top
occurred. Currently the median price line is around 1000 so 150%
above that value would yield 2500 which is roughly 19% above the high made in
2014. Keep in mind even if the S&P Composite rises well above the top
of its longer term channel in 2015 this will likely be followed by a large
correction. Notice the past two events in 1999 and 1835 were followed by
significant corrections as the S&P Composite dropped back below its median price line
(green) before a bottom occurred.
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