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(3/22/14)
The common theme among the investment community is that the
market has started another Secular Bull Market which will lead to a repeat of
the 1980's and 1990's. Although nothing can ever be completed ruled
out history suggests that it's not likely. An analysis of a few key
parameters which can easily be developed into a Overbought/Oversold Index suggests the current
market environment is similar to that of the late 1990's, late 1930's and late
1920's. The chart below is a plot of the Overbought/Oversold
Index that tracks Long
Term Interest Rates, Shillers PE Ratio and how far the S&P Comp is
above its 5 Year Low. Going back to the early 1880's there have only been
"4" occasions when the index has reached or exceeded the 40 level
using a 6 Month Moving Average (red line). The previous "3"
events in 1999, 1937 and 1929 were eventually followed by significant
corrections ranging from 50% to 87%. So far the market has avoided a substantial correction however you have to wonder how much longer this will last. 
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