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Weekend Stock Market Analysis

(11/2/13)

Each week I get a few questions about the long term prospects for the market.   The three most likely scenarios over the next several years include the following.

Bullish Scenario:  There will be a repeat of the period from the mid 1980's through the late 1990's in which the Dow will just higher in a nearly straight line (represented by purple line) .      

Bearish Scenario:  The Dow has completed a large Broadening Top pattern (represented by black lines) and will eventually retest the lower trend line connecting the 2002 and 2009 lows near the 6000 level (point A).   This would be roughly a 60% correction from the most recent highs.  

Middle of the Road Scenario:  In this scenario the Dow would trade nearly sideways in a choppy consolidation pattern (represented by the green line) for the next 10 to 15 years and basically go nowhere.   

Overall I believe the Middle of the Road Scenario is favored based on the long term trend exhibited by the 18 Month Relative Strength Index (RSI).   Notice the 18 Month RSI has been trending downward since 2000 (represented by brown line) even though the Dow has been making new all time highs.   Keep in mind this is the same type of action that occurred from the mid 1950's through the mid 1960's and further back in the early 1900's (represented by the dark purple lines).  In both of those events a 17 year choppy consolidation pattern followed in which the Dow went virtually nowhere.           

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