(11/9/13)
Bearish Sentiment has dropped back to around the 15 level so
there is an extreme amount of complacency in the market. The last two
times the Bearish Sentiment dropped back to the 15 level (points A) corrections
followed shortly thereafter. In April of 2011 when the Bearish Sentiment
got near the 15 level a 300 point correction followed in the S&P
500. Meanwhile further back in early 2010 a 100 point drop occurred
after the Bearish Sentiment reached the 15 level. Considering how overbought the
market has become an eventual retest of the longer term upward trend line (green
line) from the March 2009 low would be a potential target as move into
2014. In addition the 23.6% Retrace from the March 2009 low to the recent
highs also would come into play as well in the lower 1500's. Keep in
mind they may keep the market from selling off too much through December however
as we move into 2014 that will likely change.
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