Weekend Analysis

(10/31/15)

The S&P 500 gained 8.3% in October which was the 6th largest gain for October going back to 1900 for the S&P.  In addition the large gain in October has allowed the S&P 500 to be up 1% for the year.  

Furthermore as I have mentioned before since the late 1800's each year that has ended in a "5" was accompanied by a positive return in the S&P.  The last time there wasn't a positive return was in 1875.  Thus it will be interesting to see if they keep the market propped up the next two months.

Meanwhile a long term historical chart of the S&P Composite based in Real Dollars shows it remains near the top of its  upward channel (red line).  Historically significant corrections have eventually followed when the S&P Composite has risen above its upward channel (points A).  This doesn't mean the S&P 500 can't go higher in the near term but for the longer term I still have serious concerns.   

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